More Scarcity to Come

Green Energy
Wow, the Green New Deal folks are turning America into an energy importer while they push uneconomical solar, wind and EVs.

Unfortunately for them (and us) global shortages of critical materials are driving up the cost of 'green' energy.

The rising costs of polysilicon and aluminum are forcing LG to shut down its solar panel factory in Huntsville, AL.  The American plant was opened in 2019 in response to President Trump imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese panels. www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lg-to-exit-global-solar-panel-business-301488051.html

The cost of polysilicon (the main material in the solar cells), has increased over 300% in the past year alone.

This is truly a sad development. I researched all of the major panel manufacturers before we installed our solar array and LG was widely considered to be the best in terms of efficiency and warranty.  www.neoterra.us/blog/category/solar-power

Closing this American plant will force more imports from our good buddies in China. Imports that are subsidized by our tax dollars. There's nothing better than taxing Americans and sending the money to China.

Lithium
Continuing in the area of 'Green' technology, the rising cost of Lithium could seriously  impact the cost of Electric Vehicles (EVs).

Lithium, as you may have guessed is the primary material for producing Lithium-ion batteries.... and EVs need a lot of battery.

The global production of Lithium was about 345,000 tons in 2020 and will need to increase to over 1 million tons by 2025 and at least 2 million tons by 2030 to allow a transition to EVs.  In other words, we need about a 600% increase over the next 8 years.

It is certainly possible to increase global Lithium production but it is unclear where it will come from over the long term because the known reserves are only about 18.4 million tons.  If demand reaches 2 million tons by 2030, then the world will run out of Lithium by 2036 or 2037.

Note that this isn't a crisis, at this point.  There are several possibilities:

• As with natural gas, we may discover vast , additional reserves of Lithium
• New battery technology might eliminate or greatly reduce the need for Lithium
• Lithium remains scarce, EVs become too expensive and the world continues using gasoline until alternatives are developed.

Conclusion
I am all in favor of expanded solar energy and the adoption of EVs as they become cost competitive.

That said. It is irrational to replace an energy source (such as natural gas) that is cheap, abundant, domestic and has substantial infrastructure in place, while 'green' energy relies on materials that are scarce and primarily controlled by the Chinese.