The Fourth Turning

The Great Reset
Three months ago I started writing about the Great Reset.  I admit that I haven't followed through on the subject because I've been so shocked to discover how the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the UN are determined to achieve the Great Reset goals though global crisis.
neoterra.us/blog/sustaining-liberty-the-changing-world-order

Three books are key to understanding the impending global crisis.

• The  Fate of Empires and Search For Survival - Sir John Glubb   1976        
• The Fourth Turning – William Straus and Neil Howe   1997
• The Changing World Order – Ray Dalio  2021

The Fourth Turning
This book was written in 1997.   It mainly focuses on generational cycles within America but acknowledges that their perceived American cycles affect the entire world.

Their premise is that America (and presumably other nations) goes through a repeating pattern of strength, decline and crisis every four generations.  This is based on their observation of great conflicts every 80-100 years starting with the American Revolution in 1770's,  The civil War in the 1860's and WWII in the 1940's  (note that they skipped WWI, which didn't fit their model).

Although their theory lacks concrete evidence, the 1997 book predicts a groudshaking crisis in the 2020's that will shake American society to its foundation.  Current events are eerily coming to fruition.

I quote from the Introduction:  "Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. ... The very survival of the nation will feel to be at stake".  "Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II".

The book was written 25 years ago and the authors stated they could not foresee exactly when the crisis would take place or how it might materialize.  Only that it would occur sometime between 2015 and 2025 and that it might be triggered by an epidemic or an economic collapse.  

Although the book does not coin the phrase 'Hard times create strong men',  that is certainly a good summary of their theory of recurring 4-generation cycles.

The Changing World Order
This 2021 book by Ray Dalio is one of the best I've ever read.  Ray is an economist and runs a large, successful investment fund.  He has studied the rise and fall of empires based on their economic strength reflected in their currencies.

The cycles he observes are much longer than the 4-generation cycle proposed by the Fourth Turning.   However, the process is similar.   A great nation emerges in a period characterized by a strong work ethic, a belief in prosperity, and respect for rule-of-law and property (which reinforces the work ethic).  It also helps to have some natural assets of geography or resources.

With success and power comes borrowing and living beyond society's productivity.  This lack of honesty and discipline leads to massive debt and eventual economic collapse.  The cycle has certain distinct phases:

• Before the nation rises to supremacy its currency is backed by tangible assets (traditionally gold or silver).
• The nation increases its money supply beyond its tangible assets and abandons the monetary standard.  With no backing, the economy is then based on 'fiat currency'.
• The fiat currency remains strong for a period of years or decades because the empire and the economy are strong.
• Since fiat currency has no backing the government is able to print and spend indiscriminately until the debt becomes unserviceable.
• Hyperinflation takes hold. This destroys all confidence in the currency, wipes out everyone's savings and causes economic collapse.

As an aside, the last great economic collapse started with hyperinflation in Germany, WWII, and the  subsequent collapse of the British Pound Sterling as the world currency.  The US Dollar ascended as the world currency.

Where Are We Now
This is the BIG question, isn't it?   Both books suggest that we are on the verge of a great crisis, but from very different perspectives.

The Fourth Turning states that a nation can be destroyed by a generational crisis or it can come out better, stronger and rejuvenated. They point out that the Civil War nearly ended the American experiment, but our nation recovered and became the greatest nation in history.

The Changing World Order is more dire.  America can (and has) recovered from recession.  But no nation has ever recovered from hyperinflation. We are now at a crossroads between two really bad choices.

Unfortunately, the current Administration knows  they can survive inflation (remain in power) by giving away even more money (though that will only make inflation worse).  As I'm writing this, the Biden Administration is contemplating giving away free gas cards to distract the public from the unprecedented escalation in fuel prices.

I fear we have a government of weak and incompetent people who have the power to print money.  Elections Have Consequences.

The Fourth Turning on the left and the descent into hyperinflation on the right.