Category: Unrivaled

Unrivaled

6/6/2024

With all the dismal events in the world ... the Kangaroo Trump Trial, the unrelenting invasion at our Southern border, rampant crime and homelessness, wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East ... I thought it might be a good day to post something positive. YAY!

Global Power - On the Seas
Let's start with news (from yesterday) that Russia is sending a (small) fleet of warships to the Caribbean as a gesture to poke a pointy stick in Joe Biden's bleary eyes.
apnews.com/article/russia-ships-caribbean-ukraine-b43c5b448f5803e2c8c1466e4ad7516d

Of course this sounds like we're on the Eve of Destruction, But it's really just the Russians letting Biden know that he stepped over the line when he authorized the Ukrainians to use US long-range missiles to attack targets in Russia ... killing Russian civilians. (Please note I'm not defending Russian aggression in Ukraine ... I am merely stating that Biden has improperly authorized a non-NATO country to utilize US strategic weapons).

Imagine how we might respond if Russia gave long-range missiles to Mexican drug cartels and they began attacking Tucson.

The Russians are legitimately pissed ... but the reality is that the United States remains unrivaled in military power, in spite of Joe's best efforts to destroy military morale.

Unrivaled
Although the Chinese Navy is the world's largest in number of ships, and warmongers want you to be terrified, it is no match for the US. I've written about this in past segments of 'Unrivaled' but this awesome new graphic from Visual Capitalist highlights the reality.

Friends, I'm not saying that there's no possibility of WAR. I'm saying that the real enemies of our rights, freedoms and prosperity are here at home, in the Oval Office, the Senate, the Mayors of major cities and the Governors of 'Blue' states.

China and Russia have little incentive and insufficient capability to attack the United States. Particularly when Biden and the Democratic Socialists are doing it for them.

Future Power - In Space
Next I'd like to talk about two recent developments in Space (the final frontier).

Why is Space Important
100 years ago, the British Empire ruled the waves and thus ruled the World.

I believe that over the next 50-75 years we will go through an enormous transition.

In most respects, it won't be as transformative as the Agricultural Revolution that freed humanity from starvation and led to farms and villages. It won't be as transformative as the Industrial Revolution that freed humanity from the worst of manual toil and concentrated humans in cities.

Perhaps it will come to be known as the Abundance Revolution though it may come to be known as The Second Serfdom..

In the near future the nation that rules Space will rule the World. The reason is simple ... planet Terra is about 71% oceans so, historically, whoever controlled the oceans controlled an area vastly larger than any other nation ... they could rule the World.

The United States is only the 4th largest by land area. But the oceans are larger than all other nations combined.

Just as oceans were vastly larger than nations, Space is vastly larger than the entire Earth (actually infinite). People once imagined that the ocean was a dangerous liquid desert inhabited by demons (and a few delicious fish). They were wrong.

Today, far too many people imagine that Space is a dangerous empty desert and, therefore, worthless. They are wrong. Space is quite literally filled with energy and resources beyond human comprehension.

Unrivaled
It is disappointing that the United States abandoned the quest for Space following the last Apollo mission 52 years ago. (Two entire generations if you follow The Fourth Turning.) That said, the United States is the only nation to ever make it to the Moon ... we were unrivaled ... we decided (did we really) that pandering to welfare in the present was better than aspiring for prosperity in the future.

Today
Despite the shameful decline in American education, we are still leading in Space. Just this week there were two historic events.

Yesterday, the Boeing Starliner finally made it's first crewed flight, taking two American astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). Although this is a great success for Boeing/NASA, it is also an embarrassment for America because the project (started in 2014) is more than four years late. The entire Mercury->Gemini->Apollo project to get to the Moon took ten years. NASA/Boeing have taken ten years (and Billions of $$) just to get to orbit.

That said, I wish Godspeed to Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, who successfully docked with the ISS today.

The optimistic side of this story is that SpaceX (Elon Musk) beat Boeing by four years, sending American astronauts from American soil in 2020 on the Dragon spacecraft (Ms. Terra and I were there!) Although SpaceX received about half as much money from NASA, they had to develop the Falcon rocket from scratch while Boeing/ULA were able to use surplus, cold-war Atlas-Centaurs.

But, even more amazing is the successful launch of the SpaceX Starship earlier TODAY. Starship is the largest and most powerful rocket ever built (even larger than the Saturn5/Apollo that went to the Moon more than 50 years ago) and is being developed mostly on Elon's dime.

There have been three prior Starship attempts ... each one going somewhat further. Today, the fourth attempt was a complete success, with the spacecraft returning to Earth.

I hate to say this, but it is Capitalism at it's finest. A private company, driven to excellence succeeds, where bureaucratic mediocrity fails despite massive taxpayer funding.

OK ... you are probably thinking "SO, Mr. Terra. We sent a couple of rockets up this week. How the heck is that UNRIVALED??"

I'm glad you asked! Let's look at the bigger picture (I like bigger pictures). Based on the quarterly report from Bryce Tech, SpaceX has launched more spacecraft than everyone else on Earth ... by a wide margin. They launched 20x more satellites than the Chinese (in distant 2nd place).

Seriously, SpaceX launched 525 satellites while ULA (heavily subsidized by NASA) managed 7.

Even MORE amazing. It wasn't a bunch of little pip-squeak satellites vs a few big ones. Nope! SpaceX put more material/mass into Space than everyone else combined.

Conclusion (For Today)
It is my belief, from much study, that humanity (or inhumanity) advances it's technology and knowledge in only two ways: through exploration(frontiers) or wars. A government can pursue either one or the other to stay in power. One is the path to individuality and self-reliance and the other is the path to dependence and servitude.

Frontiers compel us to work together and become one tribe striving against the cruel challenges that Nature poses against our mortal survival. We learn, we adapt, and we prevail ... together. Unity.

War compels us to fracture into a thousand diverse tribes fighting against the cruel challenges that other Humans, who we've been taught to hate, pose against our individual survival. We learn, we adapt, and prevail ... against our neighbors ... against people we don't even know Diversity.

I'm an optimist. I think we Americans are headed for a decade-long shitshow, but I think that Elon/SpaceX will get to the Moon and Mars.

In Space, our Frontier beliefs will eventually prevail over the Democratic Socialist Globalist Elites.

There will be another New World. Another neoTerra. More prosperous and more free. Unfortunately, I'll not live long enough to become a founder of the USAB ... The United States of Asteroid Belters.

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Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 4

8/30/2023

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Unrivaled
I know that Unrivaled has been a long series. But its really important to keep some perspective over the purveyors of doom that dominate politics and media (Note, there are fear-mongers on both sides. Fanning fear and anger is just as profitable for Conservatives as for Progressives).

The next several years (perhaps the rest of this decade) will be very challenging for America. We have an aging demographic and mounting debt. Even worse, the Democrats and the WEF are doing everything they can to erode our beliefs, destroy unity, derail our prosperity and curtail our freedoms. They hope to establish a neo-aristocracy... but I believe they will fail.

Keep in mind, every other industrial society also has an aging population bubble that places a burden on the shrinking younger, working population.

Most major industrial powers will face food and/or energy insecurity over the next 30 years.

AND every other industrial nation is burdened by socialism or communism.

We should not lose our confidence or belief in the United States... I am optimistic in the long run (though I may not live long enough to see the next American sunrise).

Population and Demographics
Because China and India are so large, we have been conditioned to think of the United States as a small country. In reality, the US is the third largest nation and still growing... while China is now in decline (and has already been surpassed by India). www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

Over the next 20 years the Boomer Burden (sorry kids, you have to carry me for awhile) will die off and, by the 2040's, the United States will again have a balanced, youthful, energetic demographic.

Territory
In terms of land area, the United States is only the fourth largest. However, combined with our peaceful neighbors to the north, the US + Canada becomes the largest with almost 20 million kilometers of contiguous land area. www.worldometers.info/geography/largest-countries-in-the-world/

More importantly, the United States controls more surface area than all other nations combined... Our world is 71% ocean and the United States Navy owns the oceans.

No other nation in all of human history has been so unrivaled. Even at its peak, the mighty British Empire had to deal with peers. Only the United States has ever become truly peerless.

The United States has more (and larger) aircraft carriers than ALL other nations combined and more destroyers than the next 15 nations combined... and most of the next top 10 are our (alleged) allies.

China and India are rapidly developing their naval power. But they will not surpass the United States in the next twenty years unless they align against us... but it is far more likely that one of them will align with the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Defense
Every other major country is surrounded by ancient enemies. The United States isn't. We fight wars on the enemy's turf... not on our own. No part of America has been occupied by an enemy since the War Of 1812 (when the Brits sacked the White House and Andrew Jackson had to kick their asses out of New Orleans). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_New_Orleans

And no American city has been devastated by war since Sherman's March to the Sea.... AND that was self inflicted.

The United States is surrounded by Oceans and cannot be invaded by any country except Mexico.

Food
The United States is absolutely food secure. We are a major food exporter even though we squander millions of bushels of corn making ethanol (to fight bogus climate change).

Food security in China and India is already precarious. About 25% of the Chinese workforce is agrarian. Over the next 30 years the decline in working age Chinese will make food security a serious concern. China MUST devote a significant portion of their GDP to improving productivity in agriculture (Less than 1% of the American workforce produces our surplus of food).

Water
Water is absolutely essential to life. Although Terra is 71% ocean, humans and crops require fresh water... and fresh water only makes up about 1% of the water on our planet. Scarcity of fresh water is a legitimate environmental concern as humans deplete ancient underground aquifers for irrigation.

The Great Lakes alone contain about 21% of the entire world's supply of fresh water. The vast watersheds and river systems of North America are unparalleled.

Economy
The United States continues to have the world's most powerful and innovative economy.

I am amused that all of the 'experts' predict that China will be far-and-away the largest economy by 2050 and that the United States and India will be vying for 2nd place (about half the experts put India in 2nd place and the other half bet on the United States).

The problems with so-called 'experts' is that they project on transient trends and fail to analyze the underlying strengths and weaknesses. As I pointed out earlier, by 2040 the Boomer Bubble in the United States will be subsiding. Furthermore, our bubble will be partially offset by immigration and automation.

Demographically, China is about 15 years behind us. By the mid-2030's China will be starting the greatest demographic implosion in human history... and there is nothing they can do to stop it. I will go out on a limb and predict that by 2040 China will be in a demographic decline while the United States is beginning its next resurgence and while youthful India is rising.

China's population is expected to decline by more than 100 Million by 2050. And, because of aging, their working population will decline by 200-300 Million. (As an aside, that loss is larger than the entire US workforce).

While it is possible that China may overtake us in total GDP I find it very hard to believe that they will quadruple their GDP (to $106 TRILLION !!) while their workforce is shrinking.

India has a much younger workforce than China. I believe that India could reach GDP parity with the US by 2050.

Energy
The United States is the only major economy that is energy self sufficient.

Yeah, yeah, Russia is energy independent... but their economy is less than Canada (or Brazil... OMG). I can't honestly consider Russia to be a major economy.

Neither China nor India is energy independent and there is no possibility they will become energy independent over the next 20 years. In spite of the hype/hope for renewables... They will be burning coal for another 50 years. (China is the world's largest coal producer and also the largest coal importer. China already burns more coal than the rest of the world combined).

By contrast, there is no possibility that the United States would not continue to be energy independent over the next 20 years (if the Democrats get out of the way). Combined with Canada, we have a 30 to 40 year horizon to develop alternatives.

Conflict Considerations
Over the next 30 years the rapidly growing economies of China and India will create intense competition for resources. We should recall that throughout the 20th century competition over resources (particularly energy) led to two World Wars and numerous regional conflicts.

War between China and India (or their proxies) is a distinct possibility.

China is currently the world's second greatest military power. Though most of their military is occupied defending their borders, recent alliances with Russia may give them some breathing room.

China is heavily dependent on imported raw materials and energy from throughout southeast Asia (and Australia), oil from the Middle East and from their many investments in Africa. They do not trust the United States Navy to remain unbiased in protecting the Freedom-of-the-Seas (thus far insured by Pax Americana). Consequently, China is rapidly building their Navy.

It is China's intent to dominate the South China Sea (where they have no legitimate territorial claim) and to extend their control through the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. Although the Chinese Navy does not yet have such reach, they have been strategically encircling India with Chinese naval facilities in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. India is being threatened.

India has similar resource needs. Their economy is too small to counter the Chinese Naval buildup today, but India will be compelled to confront China in its own territorial waters and the Indian Ocean.

At this point, it is unclear which side will align with the United States.

With three dominant economies (in 2040 - 2050)... this becomes a classic 'Three-Body-Problem'. (which, BTW, is insoluble).

There are several plausible scenarios. (It is much fun to contemplate the possibilities... YAY).

For the sake of brevity, I will refer to the alliance of Pacific nations fearful of China as the Pacific Rim Alliance (or PacRim). In my humble scenarios, PacRim will be composed of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and, perhaps, some nations threatened by China (Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia).

Scenario 1: Near term and least likely, is that China backs down... stops threatening Taiwan and Vietnam, halts its naval buildup and places its trust in Pax Americana. China renounces all military expansion and pushes its economy into improving its agricultural productivity and pursuing energy self-sufficiency.

Unfortunately, I see zero evidence that China will even consider this peaceful path because China must deal with India at some point.

Scenario 2: (what is occurring right now) China continues its military buildup. This will compel the nations of PacRim to strengthen their ties with the United States and invest in their own naval and defensive buildups. It also compels India to accelerate it's naval buildup.

China will attempt to avoid confrontation with Japan and Australia.

Scenario 3: (based on a near-term evolution of the second scenario... this is an unlikely scenario because it poses an existential risk to China): China realizes that it cannot out-build the United States and the combined forces of PacRim. China decides on a preemptive attack on Taiwan as a matter of national pride and dignity. Like Hitler's Blitzkrieg attacks in WWII, and Japan's sneak attack on Perl Harbor, China gambles that they can demoralize our alliance into surrender.

Scenario 3A: Joe Biden is President. The United States flounders and botches the conflict. Our allies are devastated and the United States sinks into decline 50 years ahead of schedule.
Scenario 3B: Any Republican (who doesn't stumble down stairs or wear a diaper) is President. We rally our allies, and China collapses like the Soviet Union in 1990. Pax Americana is unexpectedly extended for another 50 years.

Scenario 4: China realizes that it cannot out-build the United States and the combined forces of PacRim. And it realizes that eventual competition with India over resources is a greater priority than possession of Taiwan. China seeks a diplomatic accommodation with Taiwan to save face and conflict with PacRim is deferred. China focuses its efforts on developing its own multinational alliance and expanding the 'string of pearls'.

In this scenario, China pivots toward alliances with Islam to 'contain' India and harass the United States. The Islamic Alliance includes Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Malaysia and Indonesia. India is encircled.

Initially, India and China are unwilling to directly confront one another and a 'Cold War' develops. Proxy wars break out in Sri Lanka, Madagascar and East Africa. China might also provoke a renewed war on the Korean peninsula to distract the United States.

Scenario 5: China's demographic implosion is more dire than predicted. The future does not look all that promising by 2040. A declining China aligns with the United States against a rising India... This is unlikely... but stranger things have happened.

Scenario 6: Most likely, in my humble opinion, India becomes an important strategic ally of the United States over the next 20 years.

Many 'experts' discount this possibility because India is part of BRICS today... but as the Chinese Navy expands into the Indian Ocean, they will seek greater alliance with America against the Iranians and Pakistanis to their their west and the insatiable Chinese Empire to their east.

In this scenario, India abandons BRICS and the combined economic and military strength of an Indo-American alliance creates a new global Pax.

Conclusion
I'm optimistic in the long run. In each of the imaginary scenarios (except 3A), the United States remains prosperous and secure.

If the United States can recover from the current mass psychosis... the extreme divisiveness ... and the profound anxiety over the exaggerated bogymen-of-doom, then the inevitable forces of demographics, natural advantages and momentum will prevail.

The future will probably not be peaceful. However, future conflicts, like those of the past 120 years, will NOT take place in North America. They will take place in Asia, Europe and (increasingly) in Africa.

I admit that the future does look scary as world population pushes toward 10 BILLION. However, to survive and prevail we don't have to outrun the bogeymen....

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Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 3

8/27/2023

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Hello, Everyone. It has taken longer than I planned to get to this segment of 'Unrivaled' but the dog-days of summer compelled me to make a short Odyssey into Appalachistan. It is a world of contrast and stark economic inequity.. but that is a topic for another day.

Recap
Many months ago I wrote about the agricultural and energy abundance of the United States.

In Part 1 of Unrivaled I wrote about the astounding economic power of the United States , which surpassed the rest of the world more than 100 years ago and continues to this day. neoterra.us/blog/dont-panic-unrivaled-part-1

In part 2, I wrote about the demographic cliff of aging that will crush most industrialized nations over the next 30 years. However, the United States is a nation of immigrants and our population will continue to grow while our military and economic adversaries are facing a huge decline in working-age population.

Immigration is good, if we stem the tide of unskilled and uneducated invaders flooding our southern border. I will discuss this a bit more in the section on the "Borderland". neoterra.us/blog/dont-panic-unrivaled-part-2

America's Greatest Advantage
America's greatest power is not its natural abundance or even military strength. Our greatest advantage is our belief in Freedom and respect for the individual human being.

All Men Are Created Equal... In The United States
The United States is totally unique in all of human history.

In spite of the negative bullshit that Democrat (Socialists) will try to shove down your throat, ours is the first civilization based on the belief that all rights, all initiative and all authority stem from individual human beings. We abolished aristocracy with the simple statement that "All Men Are Created Equal".

The Declaration Of Independence clearly states that our government has no innate right to exist. It is created (and given power) only by our mutual consent and for our mutual benefit.

Yes, our government has become bloated and corrupt. But that does not change the fact that we the people have the right to abolish this bureaucracy and start over.

... But Not In Other Countries
In other countries, the Monarchy... the State or the 'Fatherland' preexists and supersedes the individual. In other words, you are a subject of the Queen, or a comrade of "The State".

If you are a Progressive you might find my distinction perplexing so please be patient while I elaborate.

If you live in England, Canada or Australia (for example) you may have the illusions of freedom, but you are still actually subjects of the Crown. The Prime Minister can lock you in your homes, freeze your bank accounts, seize your assets and even herd you into internement camps because of the flu. (All of these abuses occurred in Canada, Australia and New Zealand during COVID).

A Parliamentary system may create an illusion of freedom but lacks check-and-balances. Prime Ministers are NOT elected by the people... they are selected by the majority party (or a coalition).

To make matters worse, the Senate isn't elected either... senators are appointed by the King with advise from the Prime Minister. Senators must be subjects of the Crown and are appointed for life (or until age 75). Comically, the number of senators is not fixed. The King may appoint additional, temporary senators to insure passage of bills!

In short, it is a system of mob rule where there is no one in power to restrain the Prime Minister (except the King).

This is how a clown like Justin Trudeau gets to be Prime Minister with almost unchecked power.

This is true, with some variation, throughout Europe though many countries no longer have a monarch to restrain the PM. You belong to the State.   In America, by contrast, the State (i.e. the government) belongs to us. (or, at least it is supposed to).

Diversity Is NOT Strength
The idea that 'diversity is our greatest strength' is just Democrat Progressive nonsense. Diversity is absolutely NOT strength. The word 'diversity' comes from the same root as 'division'... as in 'divide and conquer'.

If you want to truly understand 'diversity' then you should study the Balkans where tiny nations have been slaughtering each other over grievances that are centuries old.    From The Crisis Group... "[in the Balkans] there is a growing sense of stagnation in which each country’s historical grievances and unfinished business fester as perennial features of election campaigns and potential conflict triggers. Leaders fan the flames with divisive rhetoric, trying to divert attention from sluggish economies, low living standards, corruption and nepotism. "   It sounds a lot like the Democrat Party... doesn't it??
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/balkans/managing-risks-instability-western-balkans

The only thing that 'diversity' has ever strengthened is division, hatred and genocide.

Unity IS Strength
The real power of the United States is UNITY in a shared belief that we can all pursue our own individual dreams and find our own way.

This is a nation of immigrants who have come from literally every other place on Earth.

The people who come to the United States are justifiably proud of their ethnic or national heritage. BUT, they do not come here to be Germans or Albanians or Chinese... they come here to become Americans (with the exception of the Borderland).

Americans discard the ancient animosities that plague the Old World.   I really don't care what someone from your great-great-great-great-great grandfather's generation may have done in 1356. The atrocities of the distant past simply do not reflect on you... if you're an American.

America's Greatest Challenges
As we have seen, the United States has enormous advantages and few disadvantages compared to other leading economies.

That said, our nation is suffering from a loss of national identity and purpose in an environment of escalating (largely self-inflicted) divisiveness. We aren't really threatened by China... we are threatened from within by elitism, divisiveness and incompetent leadership.

Creating Division... A Nation of Victims
Our single greatest challenge is the extreme divisiveness that is tearing at our social fabric. It is, quite literally, national schizophrenia... a state of mass psychosis inflicted by self-anointed elites.

Though we are imperfect and racial prejudice still exists, most ethnic and religious divisions have disappeared in America.   Throughout history these have been the most divisive and explosive distinctions... endless wars have been fought over language, customs and religion.

Without ethnic or religious fanaticism to divert attention from corruption and incompetence, the Democrat Party has declared war on Unity. They intentionally create divisiveness.   LGBTQblah-blah, BLM, Transsexuals in women's sports, mockery of rural America... the list goes on and on.

Let me be clear.... tolerance and acceptance should be hallmarks of the American Ideal. We should strive to be inclusive.   As long as you aren't hurting me or forcing your beliefs on me then live your life however you see fit.... it's none of my business.

Unfortunately, the Progressive Democrats have created a corrosive environment where literally everyone can believe they are marginalized or oppressed by someone else. As a white, cis-gender, able-bodied, heterosexual male citizen who speaks English and owns property, I MUST be oppressing someone!

To amplify the sense of victimization, they have invented an astounding array of 'isms' and 'phobias' that can be endlessly combined with intersectional alchemy. Imagine being a POC, monolingual, neuro-divergent, pan-sexual, obese person... YIKES!

I contend that the Progressives have embraced schizophrenia as a lifestyle... they believe they are morally and intellectually elite and, simultaneously, believe they are intersectional victims being oppressed by an evil and unbearable society.

A couple of years ago I highlighted this assault on sanity in a segment called "A Nation of Victims". I am gratified that Vivek Ramaswamy has written a compelling book on the subject. I highly recommend it.

The Borderland
Almost every country on Earth must deal with Borderlands. A Borderland is a geographic region (typically on the official border between countries) where a significant ethnic population refuses to assimilate or embrace the national culture, language or identity. A perfect example is the Donbas region of Ukraine which is populated by ethnic Russians. Borderlands are reservoirs of ancient hatreds and the trigger points for power struggles, violence and war.

The United States has not been burdened with a festering Borderland. During the Mexican-American War that ended in 1848 the United States seized a vast territory from Mexico which has become the states of New Mexico, Arizona and California. Because of the inhospitable desert environment, the vast distance from the Mexican heartland and the surging prosperity of the United States following the Civil War, this area did not degenerate into an unstable Borderland. It became American.

Today, the second greatest challenge to America is the torrent of illegals flowing across our southern border. There is a very real danger that this could create an unstable ethnic Borderland.

People who immigrate from great distances generally have no intention of going back to the Old World (except to visit). For example, the people who immigrate from Mexico and settle in Chicago, or Atlanta or Seattle are no different than the people who immigrated from Germany or Greece. They are far from 'home' and probably have a genuine desire to become part of American society.

On the other hand, those who settle in the Borderland may only be a day's drive from their Old World. They are far less inclined to assimilate. They are far less inclined to learn English or embrace American culture. Their 'community' may become permanently divided from America in a vast Mexican-peasant enclave along the 1900 mile border.

In my opinion the Democrat open border policy is an intentional assault to crush the rural southwest with a massive humanitarian welfare burden and create a permanent ethnic Borderland that will destabilize the region.

Conclusion
In the next post I'll provide a summary of the vast advantages enjoyed by the United States.

Until then... DON'T PANIC!

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Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 2

8/15/2023

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Recap
Many months ago I wrote about America's great natural abundance and I said "Don't Panic".
neoterra.us/blog/dont-panic

But that is only a small part of the story. In the last post I wrote about how astoundingly productive our agricultural sector is... even if China does overtake our GDP, it will be a hollow victory because they need 15x as many people toiling in the fields just to feed themselves.
neoterra.us/blog/dont-panic-unrivaled-part-1

Living Longer
Today, I'd like to talk about the demographics of aging. It is NOT pretty for us, but it is a disaster for China.

First, let us look at the advent of industrialization. The Industrial Age began in the 1700's with the invention of the steam engine and a transition from wood to coal as fuel.
www.history.com/topics/industrial-revolution/industrial-revolution

We see almost no increase in life expectancy for the first 150 years... a period when the British Empire was the world's greatest industrial economy. Life expectancy in Europe and America hovered around 35 years.

Coincidentally, life expectancy began increasing at about the same time that America became the greatest economy in the world (around 1875-1880)

The (Economic) Benefit of Extended Lifespan
Life expectancy in industrialized countries increased dramatically from 1900 to the present. During this period people worked 15-20 years longer because they lived so much longer. The productive population in industrialized countries doubled.

As late as 1950, the average life expectancy in industrialized countries was still less than 60 years (even less in the rest of the world). The population of productive, working age people was still expanding because people were living longer and working longer.

Education
During the age of aristocrats and serfs, the common people did not need and could not afford the time for an education. They worked from childhood until they died (at age 30).

The aristocracy, of course, generally lived longer because they wore frilly outfits, they were well fed and had access to the finest leeches and bleedings (systemic classism in health care). This afforded them the years to attend Cambridge and sit under apple trees.

As the adult life span increased, common people could invest more years in education. This unleashed accelerating creativity and technology (and we eventually rejected leeches and embraced Fauchi Ouchies).

Declining Fertility
One of the side effects of industrialization, and increased longevity is declining fertility. Simply put, women in prosperous countries tend to have fewer children. (I have some irreverent thoughts on this but I shall keep them to myself).

To have a stable population each woman (on average) must have 2.1 children. One to replace herself and one to replace a man (because men can't get pregnant, dammit!). The extra .1 covers infant mortality.

Most industrialized countries are now below replacement and their populations will start to decline.

Japan's population has been declining for a few years and China's population declined for the first time last year.

Declining population isn't necessarily a bad thing in a crowded world... however, a nation with fewer and fewer productive, working-age people will have enormous challenges supporting it's elderly 'bubble'.

As the following graph illustrates, the United States went through a population boom in the 1950's which fueled an economic resurgence 30 years later in the 80's (Reagan helped).

China's fertility decline (partly due to the one-child policy) has been absolutely stunning. China's fertility rate is now lower than the United States and among the lowest on planet Terra. (As an aside, the population of India has recently surpassed China. The only countries where populations are still exploding are in Africa).

Analysis
It appears that the economic boost from greater life expectancy only lasts one or two generations. Declining fertility eventually takes over and leads to a stable or shrinking population. Japan, South Korea and Italy are the canaries in the coal mine.

During the transition, there are fewer and fewer working-age people to support the expanding number of elderly. This is occurring with the Boomer generation in the United States right now (YAY ME). Social Security is in trouble.

Automation and improved productivity can partially compensate for the shrinking workforce, but such solutions will probably not be quick enough... particularly when the Democrats are obsessed with crippling our energy supplies and destroying the economy.

Eventually the situation will stabilize as the Boomers die off. BUT I intend to hang around for many more years.

I know this sounds dire but the situation for our rivals (like China) is much worse. China now has the most rapidly aging population in the world and will face the 'retirement explosion' in another ten to fifteen years. Their problems will be MUCH worse than ours. The 'experts' who predict that China will soon surpass America are not looking at the demographic reality.
www.businessinsider.com/china-shrinking-population-worker-labor-shortage-grim-omen-global-economy-2023-2?op=1

A Shortage of Women
The problem in China is exacerbated by the shortage of women... created by the one-child policy (socialists always fuck things up). It is estimated that China is lacking 30 Million young women which has led to a massive surge in sex trafficking (perhaps that's why the Democrats love open borders... sales of young women to China are booming).

Agriculture
Recall that China needs about 25% of it's current workforce just to feed itself while the United States needs less than 1%. It is highly unlikely that China can automate its agricultural sector fast enough to compensate for a declining workforce. The elderly will stop working but they will keep on eating.

Immigration
The United States is a nation of immigrants. Our population will continue to increase over the next 30 years while the rest of the industrialized world is in decline. US immigration will help ease the Boomer Burden.

Our friendly Maple Syrup neighbors in Canada are on a similar trajectory. Canada is one of the few industrial nations that will continue to grow over the next 30 years. Canada has vast natural resources and can accommodate millions of immigrants.

China, on the other hand, has one of the lowest rates of immigration in the world. NO ONE wants to move to China!

Conclusion
Our current social and economic landscape in the United States seems dismal. However, I remain optimistic for the nation's future. The United States still has advantages that make it unrivaled.

The greatest economy in the world
The most advanced and powerful military in the world
Abundant farms and forest
The most highly productive agriculture in the world (less than 1% of our population produces all the food we need).
Abundant resources and vast reserves of fossil fuel (if the Democrats would just stop f***ing things up).
AND... Very Important... the most intelligent and beautiful women on the planet.

In the next post I'd like to talk about some of America's other advantages.

We have many social and economic challenges ahead... challenges that may last for many years... challenges that may last longer than the time I, personally, have left. That's OK.

I am reminded that JFK once said "The rising tide lifts all the boats". Well, the opposite is also true... the falling tide (of current world events) will leave most of our adversaries grounded on a sand bar.

It seems to me that only the United States is in a position to prevail. More in the next post.

IN THE MEANTIME.... DO NOT PANIC

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Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 1

8/10/2023

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Introduction
About 18 months ago I started the Don't Panic segment. With the rampant insanity in the world we all need an occasional dose of sunshine. That first post is worth reading again (honest). neoterra.us/blog/dont-panic

Over the past few weeks I have read three books that discuss the future as the United States (and the world) passes through the turbulence of this decade. So (if you love America) it is time for another Don't Panic post to brighten your day.

The Books That Influenced This Post
All three books, to some extent, give credence to The Fourth Turning and discuss the crisis-of-purpose and loss of faith/confidence unfolding within our country.

As an aside, the cultural malaise is much worse in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. BUT all three books illustrate that the Old World is largely irrelevant in how the next ten years will play out.

All three books acknowledge that the astounding growth in world prosperity over the last 80 years is the direct result of Pax Americana that has existed since the end of WWII.

By some, reliable estimates, more than 80% of all the material wealth created through all of human history has been created over the past 80 years. When I look at the utter devastation of Europe and Japan following WWII, I think this estimate is plausible.

Of the three, The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning is a lengthy, gloomy, end-of-prosperity prediction. He believes that America will lose it's resolve and that safe, global trade (guaranteed by the US Navy) will collapse. However, Zeihan is a professional purveyor-of-doom, so that's to be expected from his latest book.

All three books suggest that America will continue to be prosperous (or resume prosperity) into the 2030's.

Optimism?? Really??
When you watch the nightly news (or follow social media) it is hard to feel optimistic, but our nation has been through far, FAR worse. Much of what we are suffering today is self-inflicted (by the Democrats).

Few of you are old enough to remember the 60's. I assure you: following the assassination of JFK and the installation of Lyndon Johnson (a traditional southern-racist Democrat and the most genuinely evil and vile person to ever hold the presidency) our country went through almost two decades of decay and decline even worse than today.

AND, the 60's was just chickenshit compared to the Great Depression, the Dust Bowl and WWII.

AND, even that was chickenshit compared to the Civil War.

This may indeed be the most discouraging period many of us have ever experienced... but the United States has been forged in fire and conflict... and has grown stronger with each challenge.

Advantages
The natural, geographical, demographic and military advantages of the United States are truly astonishing.

In my first post, I talked about our abundant agricultural and forest resources. So, I will not reiterate those today. Suffice to say that America will never go hungry (except by government incompetence) and that America has vast (and increasing) forests, rivers and wetlands.

Productivity and GDP
The United States has the world's largest and most productive economy. In the most recent analysis from Visual Capitalist, the US economy will achieve $26.7 TRILLION this year... roughly 25% of the entire global economy of $105 Trillion (the totals are deceptive due to global inflation, but the rankings and ratios are accurate).

China is a substantial 2nd at $19.4 Trillion.

It's important to note that all of Old World Europe combined is less than the United States! (This is why all three books discount the importance of the economically declining Old World).

The next decade (and the generation that follows) will be determined primarily by the United States (the hegemon) and China (the upstart challenger).

Imagine what might happen if some enlightened leaders decided that an alliance would be better than a confrontation. Together we would control more than 50% of the global economy and more than 90% of all military capability. An Ameri-Sino Pax could last longer than the Roman Empire.

A Bit of Economic History
I was very surprised to learn that the mighty British Empire was already into steep decline by 1870. Even more surprising (to me), by 1880 (only 25 years after our devastating Civil War) The United States overtook Britain as the world's leading economy.

Please look at the pic on the left. Can you imagine being surpassed by the deplorable, rural Walmart shopper class in just eight years!

Over the next 50 years the United States eclipsed the entire world with 42% of the world's industrial output.... and that was before WWII. Seriously, look at the pic on the right... while England, France and Germany were shitting themselves, the United States was running a Marathon.

In short, the United States was global economic superpower, long before the Europeans gave us any respect whatsoever. However, by the 1880's the handwriting was on the wall for anyone who actually cared to look... the United States would eventually turn the Old World inside out.

A Bit of Economic Prediction - Statistics Are Not Truth
It is widely projected that China's economy will surpass the United States within the next ten years and some people believe India will surpass us by 2070 (though that's a pretty long hedge for a prediction). However, there are many experts who dispute these projections because they are based on assumptions that are simply not sustainable (more on that in a future post).
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-15/china-faces-significant-hurdles-to-become-biggest-global-economy/100912398

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that China's GDP does overtake the United States in ten (or so) years. What would be the real significance?

In my recent reading I learned that GDP is actually not a very good measure of national wealth or power. I will give but one example... there are several others.

Agricultural production is a component of GDP. I hope we all acknowledge that feeding your people is really, REALLY important (recall Marie Antoinette??). However, the food we produce this year will all be consumed by next year... It is an economic treadmill with little residual wealth or power created.

Real wealth is accumulated by building infrastructure and other durable products such as machinery or homes. Real wealth (and power) can only be accumulated by whatever is left over after a society has produced whatever it needs to survive.

This seems obvious in retrospect, but I have never seen any economist look at the balance of power this way.

As you can see in the following graphic from Visual Capitalist, in the United States (a major food exporter) only about 3 million people are engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing. This is about 1.5% of our employed population (and much less than 1% of our total population). Almost half of this is exported or wasted producing 'green' ethanol.

China (who we are assuming will overtake us in GDP) has 229 million people engaged in feeding themselves. This is 25% of their entire available workforce and, astonishingly, this is more than the TOTAL American workforce.

India is even worse. 272 million people are needed to grow food which is 43% of their entire working population.

The point here is simple. Even if China surpasses us on paper (i.e. on gross GDP), 25% of their population struggles to feed themselves while about 1% of our population produces twice as much food as we need.

To put this another way, even if China's GDP does match ours, they will still be 24% behind (and that is only considering the non-durable aspect of agriculture). China still has along way to go to match US productivity and investment.

I plan/hope to write more tomorrow. The advantages of the United States are not some temporary blip that will soon expire.

We preserved the Union in the Civil War, abolished slavery, and came closer to our ideal that "all men are created equal" , 165 years ago.
We surpassed the Mighty (and arrogant) British Empire more than 140 years ago.
We became a world economic superpower 100 years ago.
We became the world's most fearsome military superpower 80 years ago... and established Pax Americana
We became a global hegemon with the destruction of the Soviet Union 30 years ago

It seems that a generation (or two) after every major breakthrough, we fall into some generational sickness of malaise, self loathing or self-indulgence. We are now in that time (for my second time) and I have faith that we shall get through it.

AS ALWAYS.... DON'T PANIC

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Unrivaled

Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 4

Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 3

Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 2

Don't Panic - Unrivaled - Part 1

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