Category: Electric Vehicles - neoTerra

EVs - Not Ready For Prime Time

1/22/2024

I hate to beat a dead horse .... but a dead Tesla ... YAY!

As an aside ... for a more in-depth report please see my 2022 posts "EVs - Promise and Problems"

The Polar Vortex
Over the past week most of the United States has been gripped in a frigid Polar Vortex (probably due to Global Warming). The freezing temps put a Big Chill on EVs and they failed in mass numbers.

Since I enjoy picking on Chicago, let's see the Tesla 'graveyard' where motorists were left stranded because the batteries WON'T charge if it's too cold. A spokesperson commented that it really isn't the vehicle's fault because you have to get the battery up to it's optimal temperature first. LOL

I honestly believe that EVs will eventually be superior to ICE vehicles ... but the battery technology just isn't there yet, and it may take another decade to mature.

In the meantime, I would rather drive an ICE than push a Tesla.

It Hertz So Good
The Biden Administration has been pandering to Climate Hysterians since his first day in office. Numerous companies joined the woke cash-grab and are already starting to regret it.

Hertz, which had previously committed to the purchase of 100,000 Teslas only purchased about 36,000 and is now liquidating 1/3 of their EV fleet due to lack of customer demand. They are getting rid of 20,000 EVs (mostly Teslas) and will use the funds to buy GAS vehicles. The company took a loss of $245 Million in Q4 2023 due to the sale.

If y'all would like to buy a used Tesla (and ya live in a nice warm climate) now's your chance!!
www.hertzcarsales.com/used-electric-vehicles.htm?geoZip=30529&geoRadius=0

But don't expect to do too well on resale ... a 47% loss in 15 months despite record inflation.

Ford
Both GM and Ford gleefully jumped on the Biden EV gravy train only to see the train derailed by merciless reality. Last Fall, Ford cut production of the electric F-150 Lightning from three shifts down to two ... and this week they announced that it will be cut down to one shift. Ford's EV unit lost $4.5 Billion last year and is reportedly losing $36,000 on every EV sold!!

The losses on EVs are so horrific that Ford is putting a hold on $12 Billion in EV investments. This is truly an example of Bidenomics at work!!

Please Joe
Progressive Pundits are claiming that the transition to wonderful EVs is being derailed by 'cheap' gas prices. If Joe would just jack-up gas prices to $4.00 or $4.50 then the World would be saved from deplorable hill people driving ICE pick ups.

Please Joe ... Please, PLEASE ... jack-up gas prices in an election year. PLEASE DO IT!

    Chewing on a piece of grass
    Walkin down the road
    Tell me, how long you gonna scam us, Joe?
    Some people say EV's don't work in snow
    You don't care .... I know ...
                     - Ventura Highway - 1972

Clown World

4/27/2023

The End Of War
The idiocy within the Biden Cabinet seems to be limitless. Anti-Energy Secretary Granholm has gone on record stating that the United States Military should switch to all electric vehicles by 2030.

I suppose that every Jeep will be equipped with a 400-mile extension cord. Or maybe, 2,000 mules with solar panels.

I know, it sounds too crazy to be true. Even a Biden appointee can't be THAT dumb... right? Well, here ya go.

EV Roundup

3/1/2023

It's March 1st and the Climate Crazies are doing everything they can to destroy prosperity. Time for an EV roundup!

Repo-Man
Speaking of roundups... last week Ford filed a patent titled "Systems and Methods to Repossess a Vehicle".

I know you all want a self-driving car that can drive you home after a long evening at Rocco's Pub. Well, that same car will be able to drive itself to the re-possessor when you miss a payment. No repo-man will be needed. YAY!

Even better... the smart car will be able to open your smart garage door and take off while you're asleep. Sweet dreams are made of this!

Going Postal
The United States Postal Service (USPS), who manage to lose hundreds of millions every year, has been tasked to electrify it's vast fleet of delivery trucks. Although the USPS is supposedly self-sufficient, they have been granted $3 BILLION taxpayer dollars as part of the Inflation Acceleration Act.

The USPS plans to purchase 66,000 EVs at a cost of almost $10 BILLION. This year they will purchase over 9,000 electric Ford Transits and they have issued $260 Million in contracts for 14,000 charging stations (which comes to about $18, 600 per charger).
www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-postal-service-buys-9250-electric-vans-14000-charge-stations

On a more positive note... the delivery trucks will be able to drive themselves to the Repossession Agency when the USPS can't pay it's bills.

Get A Manicure
The Biden Administration has committed $7.5 BILLION to install 500,000 EV chargers across the nation's busiest highways (that's $15,000 per charger BTW). The goal is to have charging stations no more than 50 miles apart along the 48,000 miles of the Interstate system and an additional 25,000 miles of the busiest highways.

Based on this program there would be at least 1,500 locations but there would likely be around 15,000.

The federally-funded chargers must be placed within 1 mile of state-designated EV Corridors. This will insure that rural areas do not get any financial benefit from the Federal spending-spree.

It's also unlikely that the Federally-funded chargers will be located at existing service stations. Surveys conducted by states show that EV owners want amenities ... like manicures, showers and fine dining while they wait 40 minutes to recharge.

I should also point out that the true cost is FAR greater than the Federal estimate. Fast chargers currently cost $30k - $75k... much more than the Fed estimate of $15k. I assume that the manufacturers will kick in the rest and make profit from the charging fees (like current gas stations).

So, the true cost of 500,000 chargers will be around $25 BILLION. I know that sounds like a lot of money, but its actually pretty tiny compared to the US GDP which was around $23 TRILLION in 2021.

Honestly, I'm not opposed to spending $7.5 BILLION to jump start the EV Corridors. My concern is that the technology just isn't ready and the plan is simply not practical.

When you look at a typical rest-stop along the Interstate there will be as many as 20 gas pumps (or there may be multiple service stations with 8-10 pumps each).   Since it only takes 5-10 minutes to fill your car each pump can service about 8 cars per hour while a fast charging station can only service one.

500,000 chargers will be totally inadequate for peak periods. To replace 20 gas pumps will require 100 - 150 fast chargers!

The power consumption is also mind boggling. A 200 amp charger (needed for a 40-minute charge) consumes 96 kW of power. So... 100 chargers would require 9.6 Megawatts of power. That's enough to power 10,000 homes!    In other words, the EV service center will consume more power than the entire town it's located in!

It would require 30,000 solar panels to produce that much power at noon on a sunny day. A standard solar panel is 3.25 ft x 5.5 ft ... or about 18 square feet.   Thus 30,000 panels would occupy about 536,000 square feet or 13.5 acres.... AND it doesn't work at night!

This is basic physics, folks. There is no free lunch.

The Case For EVs - NOT

2/16/2023

I have to hand it to Kamala this week. She really made the case for spending BILLIONS of dollars to replace all the buses in our country with EVs....

What's the enormous benefit to society you may ask???   USB charging ports!! OMG!!    Here are her exact words.

   The bus has Wifi.
   And even USB outlets! Next to every seat!
   I mean c'mon
   Imagine! You can charge your phone on your way home from work!
   That's good stuff.

It seems that our VP simply cannot imagine that USB charging ports have been in gasoline and diesel vehicles since the invention of USB.

Green advocates would like us to believe that electric buses will be cost-effective even though they cost far more than conventional buses. "An average diesel transit bus costs around $500,000, compared with $750,000 for an electric bus, and a diesel school bus costs around $110,000 compared with $230,000 for an electric school bus"

False Savings
They then claim that this would be offset by $400,000 in savings on fuel (over the life of the bus). This is total bullshit... it is based on an assumption that electric energy is somehow cheaper than the cost of the fuel needed to produce it.
www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/electric-buses-mass-transit-seen-cost-effective

In reality, roughly 60% of our electricity is produced by burning fossil fuels. While only 21% is from 'renewables'... As you contemplate the debate about 'green energy' in general and EVs in particular please keep three facts in mind:

It is simply irrational to believe that electric energy can be cheaper than the cost of the fuels needed to produce it.
In every case, the cost of wind and/or solar has proven to be more expensive than the cost of natural gas which is still abundant. There is no reason to believe this will reverse in the next 15 years.
The average service life of a school bus is between 10-15 years (depending on jurisdiction). The EV buses Kamala and the Dems are raving about will be dead and gone long before there are any fuel savings. www.liveabout.com/buses-and-other-transit-lifetime-2798844

Conclusion
With increasing government focus on electrification of school buses in many states, the demand for electric school buses has grown rapidly over the past few years. In April 2021, Democratic lawmakers introduced legislation to invest $25 BILLION to convert the entire US fleet of ICE school buses to electric vehicles. This is an utterly unconscionable (and irresponsible) waste of taxpayer money. www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/united-states-school-bus-market

Folks, I'm all in favor of solar energy... I have solar panels on my roof. BUT I wouldn't rely on them to supply the majority of our energy.

I'm all in favor of EVs... when they actually become cost competitive. BUT it's going to take a major breakthrough in battery technology for that to occur.

In short, I am very much in favor of spending Millions on battery R&D and I am absolutely opposed to wasting BILLIONS subsidizing technology that isn't ready.

It is time to stop the Green New Deal.

Climate Craziness

12/3/2022

It's been a while since I wrote a climate rant, but today we have the perfect storm... a storm of Socialist Stupidity (I love alliteration).

Europe, of course, is the home of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the world leader on the Green Road To Serfdom.

As y'all know, we are supposed to abandon fossil fuel and buy overpriced EVs to save Mother Terra from Climate Catastrophe (more alliteration).

Switzerland
Today, facing a serious energy shortage, Switzerland proposed legislation to ban driving EVs to avoid electricity blackouts. YAY! Under the four-stage plan driving EV's would be banned in stage-3 except in cases of 'absolute necessity". And in stage-4 you hibernate at home.
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Switzerland-Considers-Electric-Vehicle-Ban-To-Avoid-Blackouts.html

Germany
Meanwhile, in Germany, the CEO of Volkswagen, a company that has 'bet the ranch' on EV's has declared that crippling energy costs in Europe are making the production of EV batteries there 'unviable'.

Let me rephrase this so we can all appreciate the irony. Without fossil fuel from Russia, Germany has to rely on their Green Energy infrastructure. But the Green Energy is so expensive that they can't afford to continue making Green Energy components.

Please let that sink in for a moment.

Analysis And Conclusion
I have a 'portable' Honda gas generator (It was portable when I was younger... now I can hardly get it into the back of my truck).   I have come up with a new 'pickup' technique (get it... pickup from a pickup... I love my own jokes!).

Guys, I'm getting too old for this sort of thing so just consider it a bit of elderly insight that might help you find a mate. BTW, you need to select a target rich environment... such as an upscale neighborhood with a lot of single, educated, Tesla-driving women.

It will take at least an hour (maybe two) for a puny 120 volt genny to trickle out enough electrons to get her to a real charging station. So, once you're plugged-in, she's yours (OMG, get your minds out of the gutter).

If you don't act like a creepy dork, you just might connect.

You're Welcome!

OH NO!!! What if the chick is the one with the generator??    Ladies! Please do not come to the rescue of any guy who let his Tesla run out of electrons.

EV Alert

10/7/2022

Electricity and Water Don't Mix
Florida now has an additional problem to deal with... EVs that were flooded during hurricane Ian are spontaneously catching fire. Lithium burns with extreme heat and is difficult to put out.

On a more humorous note, a YouTuber recently tried to charge his Hummer EV at home. First he tried using a regular 120 volt circuit (which no rational person would do) and discovered it would take 4 DAYS to charge the battery. Anyone who can afford an EV should get a Level 2, 240 volt charger installed. With the Level 2 charger it would still take over 24 hours to charge the battery.

EVs - Promise and Problems Part 2

4/25/2022

In the previous post I talked about the inevitable transition from ICE to Electric vehicles. In this segment we'll talk about how the US grid will handle the transition. There is a bit of Math and Science and Logic... but y'all are Conservatives so I think you can handle it!

Let's Go!

How Much Energy Do Cars Use?
The US consumed about 146.29 Billion gallons of gasoline in 2019, the last year when we had a functioning economy. (We consumed only 128 Billion during the COVID lock downs of 2020).

One gallon of gas delivers 120,286 BTUs (it's Science). So, the total energy consumed in the form of gasoline was 17,600,000,000,000,000 BTUs (that is a BIGLY number).

A BTU is a really tiny amount of energy so let's convert into equivalent kilowatt-hours (kWh) which is more familiar and convenient measure. One kWh is equivalent to 3,412.14 BTUs (honest, it's Science).

To understand how tiny a BTU is, the average household in Illinois (2,186 square feet) consumes 129 Million BTU per year (mostly for heating, hot water and gas dryers).

So, the amount of energy consumed as gasoline in 2019 was 5,157,068,273,869 kWh. This number is still too big to deal with so let’s express it in TeraWatt-hours as 5,157 TWh.

Only about 30% of the thermal energy (I.e. BTUs) is converted to mechanical energy by an ICE and the other 70% is wasted (as heat through the radiator and exhaust). If we assume that an EV is 100% efficient then it will ‘only’ require about 1,547 TWh to operate 270+ million cars in America.

How Much Electricity Does the US Produce?
OK, we have a rough idea of how much electricity we would need to power all our cars. How does this compare to how much electricity we can produce?

The United States produces the 2nd greatest amount of electricity in the world (We are surpassed only by China).

The US produced/consumed roughly 4,000 TWh at our peak in 2018 and slightly less in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Please note that our production has been flat since 2010.... many new natural gas (NG) plants have been built but coal-fired plants have been retired. There has been NO expansion of capacity in 12 years.

The total production/distribution capacity within the United States is roughly 1 terawatt. In other words, we can produce about 1 TWh per hour if everything is running at full capacity. Of course this is impossible... solar produces no energy at night, wind only works when it's windy, and so forth.

Can The Grid Handle EVs?
This is somewhat open to speculation and debate.

To power 100% EVs we will need to increase our current production from 4,000 TWh to 5,547 TWh... which is a 39% increase over the next 15 years. I will again point out that we have had ZERO increase over the past 12 years.

Sidebar - As a sanity check I looked at other authorities and Forbes claims it would only require 1,106.6 TWh to run all 270+ Million cars in America per year. I assume they are ignoring vans, trucks and other heavy vehicles. Also, the author is a Brit... so I’m going to stick with my number, which is about 40% higher... why would anyone trust a Brit?

The Brit at Forbes contends that the existing grid can handle a 39% increase in load. To be fair, if I wasn't an electrical engineer, I might be tempted to agree. You see, 5,547 TWh per year is only 15.3 TWh per day... or .64 TWh per hour. This is, indeed, less than our current maximum capacity of 1 TWh per hour.

So, if everything is perfect... if the sun is shining... if the wind is blowing... if there are no storms... and if nothing ever has to be shut down for maintenance... then the Brit is correct. (Perhaps that's why the Brits are freezing their arses off and rationing food... God Save The Queen).

OK, What Will It Take?
I'm glad you asked.

I really like the fact that our grid has a substantial 'safety factor'. I am concerned that the Green New Deal transition to unreliable renewables (sun, wind, unicorn farts) will reduce this safety factor (recall the California rolling blackouts and the grid collapse in Texas due to snow).

To make a transition to EVs AND a greater reliance on unreliable renewables we MUST expand our electric generation capacity by at least 39% over the next 15 years (and that assumes there is zero economic growth... just a transition to EVs and renewables). BTW, the experts at Statista calculate that we will need to increase power capacity by 36% by 2035... and they are Unicorn Fart Progressives.

There are currently 11,070 utility-scale power plants in the US, so increasing capacity by 39% is possible but it will be a substantial undertaking and cost Billions of $$

Here's a map of ALL the power plants in the United States.

According to government studies (which are always underestimated) a 1000 MW NG-fired power plant will cost about $1B (i.e. about $1/Watt). If we assume the need for 1000 – 2000 new plants then the cost would be approximately $2 Trillion. This is certainly achievable over 15 years with a $20 Trillion/year economy (although we haven't done shit over the past 12 years).

Of course the Climate Change Hysterians will not be happy about replacing evil gasoline with evil NG. Large scale solar facilities cost roughly twice as much as equivalent NG facilities so the cost would be on the order of $4 Trillion (and it would be unreliable).

Please note that replacing gasoline (which we have in abundance) does not make transportation faster, safer or more comfortable. It is $2T - $4T spent for virtue signaling and to make billionaires, like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, even more billions.

What About Charging?
In the previous post I talked briefly about charging stations.

There are currently about 110,000 service stations in America and they employ about 900,000 people. As I mentioned in the previous report, in the future many people will have charging stations at their residence or where they work. We might see 20,000 - 40,000 urban/town service stations go out of business (maybe they will all become Dope Dispensaries, Payday Loan stores or Body Armor Outlets).

On the other hand, every service station along the highways and Interstates will need to have dozens of Superchargers and a substation to deliver the power. The Service Station of the future will look like this. Invest in Siemens.

In the next post, let's talk about the negative environmental impact of this 'Green' transition.

EVs - Promise and Problems Part 1

4/25/2022

This is a very long post but I think it is worth it.

To start off, I am in favor of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and I believe they will eventually replace Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. However, government mandates to push EVs before they become cost competitive with ICE interferes with the free market and reduces prosperity.

Let's go!

EV Advantages
EVs have many technical advantages.

Electric motors produce maximum torque at stall when it's needed most. ICE engines require complex transmissions to develop torque when the vehicle isn't moving.
Electric motors are very simple with few moving parts. ICE engines (and their associated transmissions) are composed of hundreds (or even thousands) of parts.
Consequently, electric motors are exceptionally durable and low maintenance.
EVs don't have an exhaust system
EVs utilize regenerative braking which improves efficiency and reduces wear on the brakes.
EVs remove pollution from dense cities and transfer the pollution to rural power plants.

A Couple of Anti-EV Myths
The anti-EV folks claim that the batteries only last 8-10 years and then the cost of replacement is so great that you have to throw the vehicle away. This is a great exaggeration.

The life of a Lithium-xx battery is determined more by the number of charge cycles (i.e. miles) than the number of years. Consequently, it would be more precise to say that an EV battery will last for some number of miles. (Tesla, for example, warrants their batteries for 150,000 miles with at least 70% of original capacity). www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

This wouldn't be acceptable for someone in the far-flung burbs who drives 40k miles/year (like I did). But it is very acceptable for an urban person who drives 8-10k per year.

Secondly, it is true that present EV batteries are prohibitively expensive to replace... but they will go down in price as tech improves and alternatives to lithium, nickle and cobalt are discovered. I also think that the batteries will have salvage/recycle value... considering the high cost of the primary materials.

Let's agree that EVs are impractical for high-mileage drivers who will consume their batteries before economical replacements come to market. But let's also acknowledge that EVs already make sense for people who have relatively short commutes and access to overnight charging stations.

EV Disadvantages
The primary disadvantage of EVs is that they are simply not cost competitive (yet). They receive huge government subsidies at the taxpayer's expense and still cost more than comparable ICE vehicles.

Joe and AOC can get away with the tax-credit scam when only 1-2% are buying EVs. How the hell will this work if they get to their goal of 100% ?? (270 million cars times $10k tax credit = $$2.7 Trillion). Of course this can't happen... and the tax credits are all structured to expire after a few hundred thousand cars are sold. The credits are only for the wealthy early adopters and everyone else will get little or nothing.

The second disadvantage is lack of range. Current EVs are completely acceptable for people with short commutes but most models don't work for people who drive longer distances. (There are a couple of models that get 400 miles per charge). This will eventually be solved but the EVs aren't quite there yet.

The third disadvantage is charging time/inconvenience. Here again, this is NOT an issue for someone who drives moderate distances and has the ability to recharge overnight (i.e. people with a private charging station or who have curbside charging out on the street... which is becoming more widespread in cities).

Sidebar - When we built neoTerra we installed a circuit for a Level 2 charger (7kW) in the carport. We don't have an EV... but eventually we will. Plan ahead!

A Couple of Pro-EV Myths
EV owners like to brag about how much money they're saving on gas. This isn't exactly a myth but it is temporary.

Much of the savings comes from the fact that gasoline is taxed to pay for roads and bridges, while electricity isn't. In essence, the current EV owners are getting a free ride at the expense of everyone else (in addition to the giant up-front tax credit that the rest of us paid for).

Several states have already figured this out and are heavily taxing EVs for their annual license plates. Even worse, the Biden Build Back Better plan includes provisions to track EVERYONE'S driving so they can be taxed by the mile. www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/08/11/infrastructure-package-includes-vehicle-mileage-tax-program/?sh=1e9aa44331c6

Sidebar - It seems that the Green New Deal is more about government tracking, social credit and socialist control than saving Terra. But that's a topic for another day.

Secondly, EV advocates will try to convince you that charging isn't a problem. The myth says that once the benevolent government invests Billion$ in Tesla Superchargers along the Interstates you can get an 80% charge (about 200 miles) in only 15 minutes. Seriously? When I'm traveling I expect to get a 100% charge of gasoline (350-400 miles) in five minutes. Please don't tell me to lower my expectations...

BTW, here's how long it takes to charge a Tesla: mechanicbase.com/electric/how-long-does-it-take-to-fully-charge-a-tesla/

Level 1 (120 V): 20 to 40 hours
Level 2 (240 V): 8 to 12 hours
Level 3 (480 V): 15 to 25 minutes

We can assume that Progressive lawmakers will rediscover the National Maximum Speed Limit to distract us from how long it takes to charge.

Many of y'all are too young to remember the 'double-nickel'... the National Maximum Speed Limit of 55 MPH enacted in 1974 to save us all from the imminent end of oil.
Several Blue states enacted even lower 50 MPH limits. Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, and Washington

Consider the Progressive logic for a moment. Assume, you must stop for 15 minutes every 200 miles to recharge. At 80 MPH (a proper manly speed) you have to stop every 2.5 hours.

However, with a virtuous 50 MPH National Maximum Speed Limit you will only stop every 4 hours. MUCH BETTER. You can enjoy a bug-burger and some soy-fries while you watch the electrons trickle into your EV (and you'll have time to post the experience on Instagram as part of your slow-mo adventure across the fly-over states).

As an aside, this isn't fantasy... Hillary Clinton proposed a return to the double-nickle when she was a Senator. (Click the Pic).

Wrap Up
EVs will eventually be less expensive and more reliable than ICE. The main obstacle is battery technology that relies on expensive materials that are primarily controlled by China. There is no immediate solution, however intense R&D efforts are underway around the globe.

In the next segment I'll talk about the 'elephant in the room'. The energy has to come from somewhere... renewables won't cut it and the grid can't handle the demand.