The Rational Prepper - Apocaloptimist

Happy Sunday Everyone!!

This is a long post but I promise that it's worth reading!

Apocaloptimist

I have recently discovered that I'm an Apocaloptimist... someone who knows the world is going to Hell; but still believes we'll all survive (Well, most of us).

I suggest red wines, they age better.

Pax Americana
Today, I'd like to talk briefly about the erosion and possible demise of Pax Americana.

• Aside - many Democrats dispute the very existence of Pax Americana while others are gleeful with the belief that it will collapse.  It seems that people who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
  

As recently as 2019, Democrat/Socialist pundits claimed that Pax Americana wasn't even related to American power ... they claimed that the powerful nations of Europe (who've been bashing each other's heads in for 2000 years) were no longer inclined to fight wars.  The subsequent  Russian invasion of Ukraine proved them wrong (and now they are all Hawks).

These so called experts conveniently ignore that fact that the most important aspect of Pax Americana is global Freedom of the Seas guaranteed by the unrivaled United States Navy. Up through the end of the 1800's piracy, privateering (government sponsored piracy), naval blockades and naval battles were the norm.

80 years of relatively safe and open trade has facilitated an unprecedented  global expansion in prosperity. This is the true and most important effect of Pax Americana.

The Situation in Europe
Since Biden took office we now have a prolonged war in Europe, a war in Israel/Gaza and the Iranian backed rebels disrupting trade through the Red Sea.  Though it seems that Pax Americana is coming to an end, I contend these are all problems for Europe and, perhaps, it's time for Europe to step up and fix their own problems.

The Red Sea
As an example of my position, a few days ago the Rubymar, a British flagged cargo ship, finally sank after being attacked by Houthis missiles near the entrance to the Red Sea.  As you can see from the following image, the Red Sea is a vital shipping route for Europe and Asia, but it's almost irrelevant for the United States.  (BTW, the coverage by Aljazeera is the best that I've found).

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NATO Is Useless
Perhaps, Pax Americana isn't dead yet.  Perhaps we have finally realized that NATO is truly useless and we should stop subsidizing our European "allies".   As you can see from the following graphic from Visual Capitalist, the United States spends far more on defense than all of our European allies combined.  To make matters worse, whenever the shit hits the fan, we do all of the heavy lifting.

Heavy Lifting
Back in December, several NATO countries agreed to assist in fighting piracy/terrorism in the Red Sea (which they depend on).  Germany sent one warship, the frigate Hessen, which finally arrived in theater on February 26th and promptly tried to shoot down an American drone.

Fortunately, for US, the Germans aren't prepared to fight. They're running out of missiles and they are no longer in production!   They've been in the fight for one week and they're running out of ammo.... CLOWN WORLD.

However, my friends (those of you who are spending over $800 BILLION on defense), Germany is not the worst ... at least they sent one (poorly armed) ship.   Norway will be sending 10 naval officers, the Netherlands has agreed to send 2 and our allies in Denmark will be sending one!   NOT one ship, just one guy!   NATO is CLOWN WORLD.

Now, more astute readers might be wondering what these Naval Officers will be doing when they don't actually have a Naval vessel to serve on.  Well ... they'll be hanging out at the Bahrain Beach Club conferring and coordinating.  LOL

Optimism??
YIKES  Mr. Terra, with all the shit taking place it seems your optimism is unfounded.  However, as I outlined in the Unrivaled series, the United States has massive natural and societal advantages over all other countries.  ( www.neoterra.us/blog/category/unrivaled )

Furthermore, the demise of Pax Americana, if it occurs, doesn't really hurt Americans all that much.  Global disruptions in shipping will crush the resource starved economies of Europe but the only effect here will be large increases in the cost of some imports ...

Damn!! I may have to give up my beloved Basmati rice and switch to Texmati.  I may have to drink Colombian coffee instead of Sumatra.   I can live with that.

Trade with the Pacific Rim, Latin America and West Africa won't be affected by the problems in Europe and the Middle East.

• Imagine what might happen if some enlightened leaders decided that an alliance with China would be better than a confrontation.  Together we would control more than 50% of the global economy and more than 90% of all military capability.   An Ameri-Sino Pax could last longer than the Roman Empire.  
• OMG!! I may have just found the theme for a second novel ... Perhaps, in the Aftermath,  Constitutional President Andrew Rodriguez extends an olive branch to China ... while Europe descends into the Second Dark Ages.

That's all for now my friends.   I 'm motivated and must write some dialog for President Rodriguez!